Likelihood of Success

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W-M-Denial?

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 24, 2007

Craig Karpel sends along this article from the The Spectator of London which sort of tops off the alt-media take on the WMD issue: Namely that the residual evidence is strong for a meaningful WMD cache having been located in Iraq, and that it got off to Syria:

You may be tempted to dismiss this as yet another dodgy claim from a warmongering lackey of the world Zionist neocon conspiracy giving credence to yet another crank pushing US propaganda. If so, perhaps you might pause before throwing this article at the cat. Mr Gaubatz is not some marginal figure. He’s pretty well as near to the horse’s mouth as you can get.Having served for 12 years as an agent in the US Air Force’s Office of Special Investigations, Mr Gaubatz, a trained Arabic speaker, was hand-picked for postings in 2003, first in Saudi Arabia and then in Nasariyah in Iraq. His mission was to locate suspect WMD sites, discover threats against US forces in the area and find Saddam loyalists, and then send such intelligence to the Iraq Survey Group and other agencies.

Between March and July 2003, he says, he was taken to four sites in southern Iraq — two within Nasariyah, one 20 miles south and one near Basra — which, he was told by numerous Iraqi sources, contained biological and chemical weapons, material for a nuclear programme and UN-proscribed missiles. He was, he says, in no doubt whatever that this was true.

I have always been partial to the Syria theory. For all the cynical talk about that the “runup to war,” the process was in fact absurdly shlepped out, as anyone who was reading the agonized writings of Andrew Sullivan at the time will recall. The main thing that those of us who favored military action at the time were thinking was that given this amount of time, if there’s anywhere Saddam can stash this stuff, he’s certainly been given ample opportunity to do so.

And why was Syria never confronted with the circumstantial evidence that it connived with Iraq on WMD’s? This was before, after all, Nancy Pelosi had named herself ambassador plenipotentiary to Syria. But it is likely that “realist” Colin Powell and the related Bakeroids of State, not irrationally, warned against broadening any aspect of the conflict, including the diplomatic one. The evidence against Syria was not hard; and while many have gone to the gallows on less circumstantial evidence — motive, opportunity, all that stuff — the White House, it seems, did not have the guts, even during that high-water moment of support for its actions (I mean, they had Andrew on their side!), to press the moment.

And now?

The Republicans won’t touch this because it would reveal the incompetence of the Bush administration in failing to neutralise the danger of Iraqi WMD. The Democrats won’t touch it because it would show President Bush was right to invade Iraq in the first place. It is an axis of embarrassment.

Maybe. If the proof were that good, frankly, I believe the Republicans would have jumped on it, embarrassment or not; it would have been far preferable to their current state of humiliation — in the sense of the present political crisis — over the way the war has gone. For this reason, I have to believe something very big is missing from this story, and would certainly be interested in knowing if there has been any objective debunking or not.

UPDATE: Hmm. Actually, what’s the difference? Facts, shmacts!

18 Responses to “W-M-Denial?”

  1. Well, Ron, given that the first place I heard this gentleman speak was on Coast to Coast with George Noory (yes, I listen, when that’s all I can get on the drive home at night), I have my doubts about his credibility.

    But this…

    And why was Syria never confronted with the circumstantial evidence that it connived with Iraq on WMD’s? This was before, after all, Nancy Pelosi had named herself ambassador plenipotentiary to Syria. But it is likely that “realist” Colin Powell and the related Bakeroids of State, not irrationally, warned against broadening any aspect of the conflict, including the diplomatic one. The evidence against Syria was not hard; and while many have gone to the gallows on less circumstantial evidence — motive, opportunity, all that stuff — the White House, it seems, did not have the guts, even during that high-water moment of support for its actions (I mean, they had Andrew on their side!), to press the moment.

    …I think is probably very close to the mark.

  2. Jack said

    There is something very big left out of this story.

    Several things: Israel, Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, etc.

    Wars are long games.

    There is not only the proper thing, there is the proper time…

  3. The WMDs-hidden-in-Syria is the last waterlogged straw that the die-hards keep grasping at. There are two very logical reasons why these claims should be treated with skepticism.

    (1) The border was watched carefully before and during the invasion for exactly this reason. There were several incidents where tanker trucks were blown up on their way to the border because they were suspected of smuggling WMDs. As it turns out, they were simply fuel trucks, unfortunately for their deceased drivers.

    (2) WMDs require substantial research, development, and production facilities. While WMDs could be smuggled with a lot of effort, it takes considerably more effort to smuggle chemical plants, storage facilities, records, and the thousands of engineers, scientists, military and storage personnel out of the country. Keep in mind that the US has been posting substantial rewards for anyone to come forward with proof of WMDs. None of those rewards has been claimed.

    This is the right’s version of “9/11 was an inside job.” No evidence, and certainly plenty of reason to think the claim false, yet otherwise reasonable people seem to put logic aside in order to support a hopeful belief.

  4. Also, there’s another question. When a superpower is invading your country with the intent of destroying your regime and putting you to death, wouldn’t that be the precise moment to actually use WMDs? Why smuggle them out of the country?

    Bizarre logic.

  5. Hi, DPU. Can you document (I mean, with links, not primary sources) this claim, which I have not heard before, that the “border was being watched”? My understanding from this story — and a story it may be — is that there this watching was quite porous, which is entirely consistent with the fact that men and material flowed from Syria for many, many months following the invasion, as it still does from Iran.

    Your second comment does not move me. The WMD was not meant for us, nor would it have done any tactical or strategic good if used against us. It has done much strategic good, however, if its present non-existence has made Uncle Sam look like a fool.

  6. Can you document (I mean, with links, not primary sources) this claim, which I have not heard before, that the “border was being watched”?

    I doubt the stories are still up, but the tanker bombing (by predator drone) were in the news at the time, as they were claimed to have been mobile SCUD launchers being smuggled to Syria for about a day before investigating ground troops identified the debris as fuel tankers. There were several other vehicle convoys taken out around at the same time which were thought to be fleeing al Qaeda, but turned out to be refugees in taxis.

    The WMD was not meant for us, nor would it have done any tactical or strategic good if used against us.

    Good lord, then against who? This is like having a gun in your house, but refusing to use it against an armed murderer because you want to use it on a burglar.

    It has done much strategic good, however, if its present non-existence has made Uncle Sam look like a fool.

    Because Hussein is getting satisfaction saying “nyah nyah” from hell rather than having inflicted mass US casualties during the invasion?

    There’s some fairly tortured logic at work here.

  7. DP, how about aircraft? The story as I heard back when involved a hollowed-out passenger plane that flew between the two countries before the war started.

    If you don’t know whom the WMD’s were meant for, you really should get out more, DP.

    I don’t believe the logic is tortured. Saddam did not intend to lose. As he did before, he misunderestimated the US. He saw this time that the UN would not give the US carte blance and doubted Bush would go it alone, right up to the end. He played brinksmanship and lost. The WMD’s were already in Syria by the time of the invasion under this scenario. I don’t see why you think that is tortured.

  8. The WMD’s were already in Syria by the time of the invasion under this scenario. I don’t see why you think that is tortured.

    If he was not anticipating defeat, then why smuggle out the weapons?

  9. Ara Rubyan said

    Can you document (I mean, with links, not primary sources) this claim, which I have not heard before, that the “border was being watched”? My understanding from this story — and a story it may be — is that there this watching was quite porous, which is entirely consistent with the fact that men and material flowed from Syria for many, many months following the invasion, as it still does from Iran.

    On one hand, it would defy logic that the CIA wasn’t watching the exit doors in late 2002/early 2003.

    On the other hand, this was the same CIA (headed by “Slam Dunk” Tenet) that OK’d Colin Powell’s presentation to the UN.

    On balance, however, I’m skeptical of the smuggling story.

    That said, Ron, you should hope it’s not true — because it would be a ginormous outrage to find out that Bush blew it. Again.

  10. Hi, Ara!

    It was my impression that this operation was executed after the invasion was over, which tends to negate DP’s objection.

    I agree with both your evaluation of the CIA and the current topic. All of it. 🙂

  11. DP, how about aircraft? The story as I heard back when involved a hollowed-out passenger plane that flew between the two countries before the war started.

    I’m not sure that the weapons, the production facilities, all the research and production materials and documentation, and the thousands who must have worked on or with the weapons would fit inside even a fleet of hollowed out passenger planes.

  12. soccer dad said

    This is the view of Israel’s former CoS Gen Yaalon.

    Why smuggle them out before the war? Maybe because Saddam thought he could forestall the war by getting them out of the country. Saddam was not a great strategic thinker.

    But there’s a whole problem with Scott Ritter, who, until sometime in 1998 insisted that Saddam had WMD’s and then became the biggest skeptic. What changed Ritter? He really hasn’t explained his change of heart; but rather become something of a caricature of himself.

  13. Ara Rubyan said

    Ritter became something of a caricature of himself.

    He’s an enigma for sure. But the fact remains: he was right.

  14. Ara Rubyan said

    Hi Casey:

    I agree with both your evaluation of the CIA and the current topic. All of it.

    Great minds!

  15. Murdoc said

    Though not really a strong supporter of the “they shipped the WMD to Syria” theory, the “we were watching the border” theory is even more laughable.

    C’mon, folks. Three years after the invasion, with Marines all over the place and undenied air supremacy, drones by the hundreds, and Iraqi allies, we still can’t keep that border all the way closed.

  16. Three years after the invasion, with Marines all over the place and undenied air supremacy, drones by the hundreds, and Iraqi allies, we still can’t keep that border all the way closed.

    It’s one thing to prevent certain people from crossing the border, especially with the refugee traffic at the moment. It’s quite another to fail to detect hundreds of tons of munitions, equipment, and manufacturing and storage equipment being shipped across a border. Or even detecting the dozens of flights that would be required in a no-fly zone.

    C’mon you guys, give it up. The argument reeks of desperation. Even if you ignore both the logistics of accomplishing this herculean smuggling task and excuse away all the many reasons why doing so was a very bad idea, you’re still left with a conspiracy of silence that must involve thousands of people, not one of whom is willing to talk for a large monetary reward.

    These are also the same objections that I have to the “9/11 was an inside job” folks, but they won’t have any of it either.

  17. […] article from the UK Spectator brought to our attention by Ron Coleman over at Dean’s World: You may be tempted to dismiss this as yet another dodgy claim from a […]

  18. hydralisk said

    Funny. Recently on another blog I attempted (briefly) to argue that the Spectator speculation is *not* comparable to the “911 was an inside job” crap. While there is insufficient reason to believe either proposition, the former had at least enough possibility of maybe being true to have been acted on.

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