Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Why they know it all

Posted by Ron Coleman on April 22, 2008

Mickey Kaus quotes Chris Matthews on his Pennsylvania prediction for Hillary —

Eight points. I think eight points is the over/under. If she gets a victory of less than 8 I think shes going to have a hard time arguing that she should stay in this race. …. [S]he cant call it a victory winning five or six or seven up here. Shes got to get at least an 8.

And then, thank God, adds:

I wish I could report that he said it with a knowing, ironic appreciation for its absurd arrogance. …

Yes, and no, Mickey.   Yes on the arrogance, but maybe not for the reason you think.  The fact is that Matthews is 100% right:  That eight points is exactly the margin of victory he, himself — and his friends in the Business — will declare to be “the one.”  It is a self-fulfilling prophecy, not a prediction of some phenomenon based on an analysis of objectively observable phenomena.

And yes, yes, it is arrogant.  You got a problem with that?


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