Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

Advantage: Iran

Posted by Ron Coleman on December 24, 2007

Instapundit:

THIS SOUNDS ABOUT RIGHT: “If a nuclear war between Israel and Iran were to break out 16-20 million Iranians would lose their lives – as opposed to 200,000-800,000 Israelis, according to a report recently published by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.”

I actually don’t believe the hype suggesting that the Iranians would be willing to “absorb” casualties of that magnitude in order to achieve their supposedly insane desire to incinerate the Jews.   God forbid regarding the whole thing.

But I will say this:  Losses of that magnitude to Israel would be relatively more catastrophic to the Jewish state, both because of Israel’s much smaller population (there are about 71 million Iranians and 7 million Israelis) and the relative paucity of high-value targets in Iran (i.e., infrastructure) compared to Israel.

On the other hand, ultimately it seems from that article that Israel maintains a considerable deterrent — at least technologically.  Will it in ten years?  Will it care enough about itself, have enough understanding of its reason for being, to will survival?

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One Response to “Advantage: Iran”

  1. Israel is defying all military logic–all the world’s commanders and generals agree–Israel has something special. I submit the something special is God’s blessing for eternity.
    Whoever defends Israel (as the contracts between US and Britain outline they are doing,since 1946)) will be Blessed. Whoever fights Israel will be cursed.
    Therefore we have the prophetic illigitamate Ishmael and the ligit Isaac lines of descent unfolding right before our eyes.

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