Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

President Paul, call your office

Posted by Ron Coleman on November 6, 2007

Two juxtaposed items on Instapundit (this blog is, after all, part of Glenn Reynolds’s comments section) — unintentionally, it seems:

You’re with me, right? What does Republican President Ron Paul do?

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16 Responses to “President Paul, call your office”

  1. Ara Rubyan said

    “What do the Democrats do if–yes: if, if, if–the surge appears to have succeeded?”

    There you go again.

    Didn’t I just get done spanking Stout Republican for saying “things are improving” in Iraq?

  2. That was “spanking”?

    I knew something was being spanked…

  3. Ara Rubyan said

    What you do on your own time is your business!

  4. Ara Rubyan said

    Ok, ok. Seriously dude, what do you make of this sentence from TNR?

    It hasn’t become much of a campaign issue–yet–but for the first time in a long while the news from Iraq isn’t unrelentingly ghastly.

    Is that a ringing endorsement of the surge or what??

    It’s VJ Day all over again!

    Then again, today marked a grim new milestone: 2007 is the deadliest year of the war so far…and there’s still 7 weeks to go.

  5. I don’t remember being spanked. I remember you asking question, me stating the facts as i knew them…and then that was it.

  6. From a CNN article that quotes the death toll.

    Monthly death tolls were highest in the first part of the year: 83 deaths in January, 81 in February and 81 in March. Numbers peaked in the next three months, with 104 deaths in April, 126 in May and 101 in June.

    The numbers have dropped from that level since — with 79 in July, 84 in August, 65 in September, 40 in October and 11 so far in November.

    Hmmm….and from the article you cited.

    The noticeable drop in U.S. and Iraqi deaths in recent months follows a 30,000-strong U.S. force buildup, along with a six-month cease-fire order by radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, among other factors. There were 39 deaths in October, compared to 65 in September and 84 in August.

    Now do you just limit yourself to reading the titles only, or do you actually read the articles?

  7. Ara Rubyan said

    The TNR article raises a crucial point about the decline in deaths: the cease-fire from al-Sadr. Most honest observers would suggest that is the main reason the chaos has wound down — not the surge. But the bottom line is still the same: the surge was meant to be the handmaiden to political reconciliation. And that hasn’t happened.

    So the surge is a failure. Iraq has ceased to be, for all intents and purposes, a nation. Entire cities have been ethnically cleansed. Religious fanatics have imposed a theocracy more extreme than Iran’s. Thugs and militias rule the streets and neighborhoods. The central government has flatlined. I think the best we can hope for is to point a really big gun at everyone while we back s-l-o-w-l-y towards the door.

    Victory! Let Freedom Reign.

  8. Why would anyone rely on TNR for any purpose? Isn’t it pretty much established as a completely non-credible source at this point?

  9. Crazy to believe that maybe Sadr put down the weapons at the prospect of thousands of additional American troops breathing down his neck.

    Sometimes there is causation between A and B…

  10. Ara Rubyan said

    Why would anyone rely on TNR for any purpose?

    Dude, YOU’RE the one who linked to it, via Insta-whoozit. Not me.

    Crazy to believe that maybe Sadr put down the weapons at the prospect of thousands of additional American troops breathing down his neck.

    Crazy is your word, not mine.

    But since you brought it up, I have to say that it’s finally come down to this: we’re reading al-Sadr’s mind and hoping for the best? Reminds me of Bush looking into Putin’s eyes and getting a sense of his soul.

    Good luck with that.

  11. No, you hope for the best. The generals put troops in place and actually plan on how to deal with various situations…

    Stick with your hoping though…some great military plans have come from arm-chair pundits who hope.

  12. Ara said

    Here’s what bothers me about al-Sadr: doesn’t it seem more likely that he’s just waiting for the required draw-down in April of next year?

  13. Wait…I’m confused…are you saying that if we tell militants in Iraq when we are going to leave, that they’ll fake being nice until we exit?

    Never heard that argument before…by Republicans…about why it’s bad to set a withdrawal date…a year ago…

    So, let me get this right…what Democrats argued wouldn’t happen if we proposed a withdrawal date, you are now arguing as legitimate…but only in regards to the surge?

  14. Ara said

    You’re confused because you persist in thinking I want us to lose this war. As a result, you keep talking to me like I’m someone else. Go back and read through this and other threads. You do it a lot.

    But I digress.

    It’s ironic, don’t you think? The only “withdrawal date” that’s on the horizon is one that Bush baked into the escalation in the first place. In April of 2008. Get it?

  15. Holy Cow!

  16. Ara Rubyan said

    Holy cow is right:

    Though the decline in causalities is “a very positive sign” – U.S. casualties have been declining every month since June – Hoyer said political reconciliation remains an elusive goal.

    Isn’t that what the surge was supposed to do? Facilitate political reconciliation? You said it earlier: victory is a democratic Iraq that works in concert with America’s best interests.

    Not happening, my friend.

    Like I said before, I think the best we can hope for is to point a really big gun at everyone while we back s-l-o-w-l-y towards the door.

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