Likelihood of Success

Ron Coleman’s pretty good blog

The USSR and the Six Day War

Posted by Ron Coleman on May 16, 2007

The Jerusalem Post reports:

In a new book that “totally contradicts everything that has been accepted to this day” about the Six Day War, two Israeli authors claim that the conflict was deliberately engineered by the Soviet Union to create the conditions in which Israel’s nuclear program could be destroyed.Having received information about Israel’s progress towards nuclear arms, the Soviets aimed to draw Israel into a confrontation in which their counterstrike would include a joint Egyptian-Soviet bombing of the reactor at Dimona. They had also geared up for a naval landing on Israel’s beaches.

This is really hard to believe, but the authors claim to have first-hand testimony from former Soviet officers and officials as well as documentary evidence.

Could the Soviets have thought this would not have resulted in a U.S. response?  I am sure it’s addressed in the book, though it is not in the Jerusalem Post article.  Perhaps they thought Vietnam was too big of a distraction, and that a swift victory by their side would make it a fait accompli.   Perhaps Brezhnev was sloshed.  It’s a chilling thought, though.


2 Responses to “The USSR and the Six Day War”

  1. K said

    Stranger things have happened. Yet, I doubt it went past a ‘what if’. But books are intended to sell.

    Many people don’t understand that military plans are created in advance for events not considered even remotely likely. This is a great way to evaluate the potential of junior and intermediate officers who prepare them.

    And plans and war games are quite useful in revealing your own flaws and/or weaknesses.

    e.g. the ‘Plan’ says to suddenly use your 500 tanks to take Damascus in 24 hours. Then someone points out that only 300 tanks are usable, 40% are always in maintenance. You must fight today with only 300 or wait 10 days. Doh!

    Certainly an overly simple example. But it happens.

    ‘What If’ land is the Garden of Eden for writers. Any military conjecture and plan or old paper can be hyped into a narrow escape from Nuclear Winter and the End Days. Then you hope the book sells.

  2. Bob Miller said

    Any military force that does not practice contingency planning might as well stay home.

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